By: Chad Wilson – Editor – GridironStuds Blog
Twitter: @gridironstuds

Tonight will be the 82nd draft the NFL’s history.  It has blossomed over the years into one of the biggest events in sports. It’s a time when prospects get rich while the fortunes of entire franchises ride on their ability to find the best of the best from the college football fields.  There’s no doubt that the most talked about,  needed and precious position involved in the draft every year is that of the quarterback.  In so choosing one,  it seems many a NFL team becomes blind to what it takes to be successful in almost any relationship.

Let’s play a game.  Below I have two groups of quarterbacks. If you were going to have a team and they allowed you to have six quarterbacks on the roster,  which group of QBs would you take,  Group Red or Group Blue?

[table id=7 /]

We all know that the choice is clear.  Anyone gonna pick Group Blue? I didn’t think so,  now lets talk about it.  In life choosing your mate is one of the most important decisions you are going to make.  I think that we can all agree on that.  I think we can all agree that meeting someone and rushing into marriage is a likely recipe for divorce or a disaster.  We may become enamored by some of the traits of a potential mate,  especially physical characteristics but true marital bliss depends on things that are not readily apparent to the eyes immediately.  With that being the case,  how do we find about those less obvious characteristics of our potential mate before we head to the courthouse and make it official?

If we rush down the aisle with that potential mate within four months of meeting them,  chances are we don’t have answers to the very important questions.  Sure within that four month period we could’ve gonet around and asked the people that have been closest to our mate to possibly get the answers.  However,  why do that when we can have our mate give us those answers themselves? How will they do that?  They’ll tell us either straight out of their mouths or most likely by showing us. Is four months enough time to do that? Probably not.  Is eight months enough time to do that? Not likely.  When we start hitting a year and a year plus we’re probably getting into that sweet spot.

Choosing a quarterback to lead your NFL franchise is like choosing a wife or husband.  It’s an important choice, that if done incorrectly, will break up a home.  Like choosing a wife or husband,  one must be given enough time to observe the individual so that they can tell you all or mostly all of the things you need to know.

Despite all of that,  many NFL teams ignore this fact and choose to run down the aisle with a potential mate entering into a dangerous marriage.  Every year teams get caught up by the big boobs, flashy smile or the seductive eyes,  otherwise known as the big arm, great height or winning percentage from college.

Remember that table at the beginning of this article?  Well let’s analyze it real quick.  Again,  I am sure we are all picking the red group.  All of those members of that red group were starters in college for at least three seasons and their stats improved either each year or from their second year as a starter to their third year. Group Blue consists of prospects who started at the college level for two years or less.  These two groups represent prospects from the 2009 to 2017 NFL draft.

As you can see,  two years is not enough time for us to get all the answers we need on a pro football quarterback prospect. If we think of each season as a starter as four months with a potential marriage partner we can see how things start to add up.  Two years starting as a college QB is basically 8 months with a mate and simply not enough time for us to figure it all out for real.

Not included in the Red Group are Jimmy Garoppolo who was a starter for 3.5 years at Eastern Illinois and got better each season and Andy Dalton who was a four year starter at TCU with improved stats from year three to year four.  Garoppolo appears to be on his way to stardom for the 49ers and Dalton,  though often criticized, has been a stable force under center for the Cincinnati Bengals since they drafted him.  Not included in the Blue Group is Cam Newton who started only one year at Auburn before being drafted by Carolina.  As we all know,  Newton is a pro bowler and has led the Panthers to the Super Bowl.

With any research,  their will be outliers.  Outliers meaning there will be a small amount that fall outside of the larger research numbers that counter what the research is telling us.  Cam Newton would be that but aren’t people still questioning some of his quarterbacking abilities?  The jury is still out on some of these QBs but I think the results are undeniable aren’t they?  The ideal situation is to view three seasons of quarterback play on the college level and have that prospect improve each and every year while at the school.

With that said,  who should be our guys in this year’s draft?  Based on these factors,  here’s how I rank them:

1. Baker Mayfield – 3.5 year starter – improved stats
2. Mason Rudolph – 3 year starter – improved stats
3. Lamar Jackson – 3 year starter – stagnant stats
4. Josh Rosen – 2.5 year starter – improved stats
5. Sam Darold – 2 year starter – stagnant stats
6. Josh Allen – 2 year starter – declining stats

Note: if it were me,  I would slide Rosen above Jackson because of accuracy, pro style fit and potential injury.

There’s just something about being a marked man and still thriving.  There’s something about everyone having a chance to study you and yet you continue to improve.  That is a true sense of what will happen in the NFL. When a guy starts for three years in college,  we are able to evaluate that. In the NFL,  teams will have all the chance in the world to look at a QB,  study a QB and plot against a QB.  If you could not handle that very situation in college then it’s usually a tell tale sign that you will struggle with it as a pro.  If you haven’t been in college long enough to experience that then there’s a chance you won’t be able to handle it at the professional level.  At least that is what the research is showing us.

These rankings really fly in the face of the common thoughts of the public and media at large for this 2018 draft. Have no fear, the media, public and NFL GMs get it wrong quite often.  These rankings I have supplied you with will suggest that we are going to have some big time QB busts from this NFL draft tonight.  A big part of being a bust is where you are taken and quite frankly,  none of these guys should be going in the first 5-10 picks.  However,  there’s this whole need thing. Teams trick themselves into believing a quarterback is going to cover up all the other problems that exist on their team.  Instead of solidifying those problems by using their high picks to get worthy players,  they reach for QBs that aren’t suitable.  Cleveland will likely do that tonight as will a few others.

It will be fun to look back on this article in about five years to see if the research holds up as it has for the last decade.  After all the tape evaluation, senior bowls, combines, private workouts, interviews, etc.  it just boils down to if that guy stayed in the microwave long enough to cook.  Life is so simple isn’t it.

Note: Chart refers to prospects that were selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft from 2009-2017. Some notable 3 year starters not included in the chart. RGIII who had his 2nd season interrupted by injury. Tim Tebow who’s passing stats declined. Josh Freeman who’s stats declined. Pat White who’s passing stats were significantly below the average. Some sub 3 year starters not on the list.  Sam Bradford who started 2.5 year and stats were stagnant. Jimmy Clausen who only started two years, Blake Bortles a two year starter and Jake Locker who was a two year starter with declining stats.

By: Chad Wilson – Editor GridironStuds Blog
Twitter: @GridironStuds

Some of the top 7on7 teams in the country descended upon El Camino College in Los Angeles, California this past weekend to take part in the Adidas 7on7 national championships.  It was a festival of athletic greatness, competition and pageantry as Adidas continues to insert themselves into the consciousness of the high school football market nationwide.  Amongst it all was an outstanding effort by South Florida Express that netted them the national championship.

Before we get into the on the field action,  let’s talk about the event that was well attended by players, coaches, parents and recruiting media.  You also can’t talk about this event without mentioning the effort put forth by Adidas.  The most talked about thing in that regard was the player’s lounge where individuals were getting haircuts, making personalized shirts, playing video games and taking pictures.  Celebs Chad Ocho Cinco,  Snoop Dog and JuJu Smith-Schuster were in attendance to mingle and take pictures with the fans.  Along with all that,  Adidas ran a solid event with quality officiating, score keeping and sideline control.  Those things cannot be understated.

Now to the on the field action.  With the talent as heavy as it was,  it would be difficult for a team to go through the tournament unblemished by that’s exactly what took place with South Florida Express.  After coming up just short in some recent events,  SFE had their business suits on in Los Angeles.  Led by 2019 Cardinal Gibbons QB Nik Scalzo,  the Express mixed sometimes explosive, often timely offense with stifling defense to march through the competition.

In pool play Scalzo spread the ball around to impressive 2019 South Dade HS, Fl wide receiver Frank Ladson, 2019 Chaminade HS, FL WR John Dunmore and 2020 Doral Academy WR Baron Grant.  When coverage got heavy,  Scalzo exploited match-ups out of the backfield to 2020 Northwestern WR Marcus Fleming, 2022 WR Malik Rutherford out of Champagnat Catholic and 2019 University School star Kenny Macintosh.

You want a sample of @_humble_3 weekend at the @adidasFballUS 7on7 national championships? Dude is a problem. pic.twitter.com/APGFjVZ9n5

— Chad Wilson (@GridironStuds) April 9, 2018

Defensively,  SFE used stifling coverage outside by 2019 4-star Tyrique Stevenson and 2020 Miami Central HS CB Henry Gray to force the ball inside to playmaking corners 2019 Carol City’s Jarvis Brownlee, 2019 St Thomas’ Jaden Davis and Chaminade’s 2019 product Te’Cory Couch. Linebackers Keontra Smith from Chaminade Madonna and Derek Wingo St. Thomas patrolled the middle at linebacker like a high paid club bouncer.  However,  the biggest damage to opponents were safeties Jordan Battle (2019 St. Thomas) and Josh Sanguinetti 2019 University School).  The duo got their hands on balls often and in key spots.

These two put on a complete pick show at the Adidas 7on7 championships this weekend. @J3_era and @jordantofly100. Over 6 INTs between the two of them. pic.twitter.com/PPqBSE6PcT

— Chad Wilson (@GridironStuds) April 9, 2018

The biggest challenge in pool play for SFE came against California based Ground Zero who had Express down 18-0 early on before SFE roared back with 22 unanswered to win it.  SFE finished 3-0 overall in pool play and ended up the third seed overall heading into championship day.

Elimination Day was long but it was more of the same on the field for South Florida Express.  2019 WR Jaylin Young out of Hallandale and 2019 TE Nik Ognenovic continued their consistent play with timely catches to keep the offense purring. Fleming was a menace to every team coming out of the backfield.  His ability to shred underneath coverage kept the coverage on Dunmore, Ladson and Grant honest on the outside. Rutherford may be undersized but he created huge gaps between himself and defenders once he got the ball in his hands.  Scalzo impressed many in attendance with his command and control as SFE answered every challenge.

After an easy opening round win,  SFE squared off with Orlando’s Rat Pak coached by former Florida Gator Keiwan Ratliff.  The Express was in revenge mode after losing to Rat Pak last month in the Adidas Miami tournament.  SFE would get their revenge in a mighty way doing away with the Rat Pak 29-2.   Next up on the revenge tour was a very talented FAST Houston team that defeated SFE in Atlanta earlier on in the season.  In much the same way they dealt with Rat Pak,  SFE dominated the matchup and won 29-2.  Highly ranked 2019 QB Grant Gunnell’s KBIII team was up next and after trading early scores,  SFE exerted their will to come away with the win 22-14.

Back to back games vs. Dream Tennessee in the semi-final and final was all that stood in the way of SFE and the championship.  That ended up being nothing much to worry about as SFE took the semi-final 36-16 and then the final 31-14.  It was too much Scalzo, Fleming, Ladson and the crew along with stingy defense.  The two match-ups featured a 2 INT game by Sanguinetti, an outstanding reach for the sky pick by Stevenson and perhaps the greatest catch of the whole tournament as Kenny MacIntosh turned a defender into a meme with an amazing effort on a fade from Scalzo.

https://twitter.com/rlacey23/status/983417013895774210

All in all,  South Florida Express earned the respect of the competitors as well as some Adidas hardware.  Outstanding effort by SFE out in Los Angeles.